EIA expects solar will supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

The EIA expects solar electric generation will be the leading source of growth in the U.S. electric power sector.

The EIA January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which contains new forecast data through December 2025, forecasts new capacity will boost the solar share of total generation to 5.6% in 2024 and 7.0% in 2025, up from 4.0% in 2023.

The STEO includes two Between the Lines articles that discuss how the EIA's forecast for Brent crude oil prices performed in 2023 and a closer look at our Brent price forecast for 2024 and 2025. It expects U.S. crude oil and natural gas production growth to slow, but both continue to reach new records.

Other key takeaways from the EIA's January 2024 STEO include the following.

OPEC+ production will probably stay below targets

The EIA forecast OPEC+’s crude oil production will average 36.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 and 37.2 million b/d in 2025, both less than its pre-pandemic five-year (2015–19) average of 40.2 million b/d. These values do not include Angola, which left OPEC in January 2024.

U.S. gasoline and diesel prices are likely to fall slightly

The EIA expects gasoline and diesel prices to fall slightly in 2024 and 2025 primarily because of reduced refinery margins as indicated by lower crack spreads.

The EIA expects U.S. coal production and consumption to fall to volumes not seen since the early 1960s

Coal consumption falls because demand declines in the electric power sector, and coal production then declines in response.

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