While prophets and pundits warn of the coming decline and possible extinction of fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) units due to the evolution of modern feeds and feedstocks, Steve Gim, regional tech service manager for the Americas of BASF Corp., said he believes those gloomy forecasts may be demonstrably premature, if not inaccurate.
"In my mind, the relevancy of gas and FCC is still there," Gim said. "A conservative estimate from the EIA pointed out that there will be a gradual decline of gas demand, if anything."
Alexis Shackleford, FCC account manager of BASF Corp., said it is crucial to understand "the shifting balance between motor fuels, petrochemicals and crude oil; their impact on operations; and how we can repurpose FCC to meet the future of economic drivers that are going to be coming our way."
According to Shackleford, disruptive demand changes for FCC units include the application of the regulatory corporate average fuel economy standard, the emergence of electric vehicles (EVs), urbanization and the influx of more employees working remotely.
"Today, especially in this post- COVID-19 world, more people are working from home or not driving as many miles on the road," Shackleford noted. "Substitution products like ethanol, renewable diesel and biofuels also have a role in this disruption."
According to Shackleford, operators and owners must increasingly determine the economic viability of running an FCC unit.
"If you are running an FCC unit and have to add a scrubber, will it still be economical for you to stay up and running?" she asked. "The industry is lacking capital, especially in this post-COVID-19 world. We want to get the best value on capital."
ESG investment protocols are also playing a disruptive role, Shackleford stated.
Relevance by the numbers
Shackleford pointed to demand stabilization as a valid and pressing argument for the continued relevance of FCC units.
The global population, she said, increases at a rate of 385,000 babies born every day, which translates to 140 million future drivers every year.
"The population is still growing," she said. "People are going to want transportation and cars. Also, as we're getting better mileage per gallon, and even though we're wanting to go to EVs, the typical cars still stay on the road."
Typically, internal combustion engine vehicles stay on the road for 13 years. EVs still lack affordability and infrastructure, Shackleford said, especially in developing countries.
"When you go on a road trip, we want to be able to find a place where you can charge your car," she said. "How long will the batteries last in EVs? We'll also need more electrical energy generated for them, possibly another 25-percent higher electrical grid requirements, if you're going with EVs."
Regarding fuel substitution, Shackleford observed that ethanol is limited to 10-15 percent due to engine limitations.
"Some small-power internal combustion engines limit how much ethanol you can put in, especially for smaller engines like your lawnmower," Shackleford said.
Feedstock for renewable diesel is limited and expensive, she noted.
"A lot of these things are just not economical today. Renewable products are a lot more expensive than what you can do with refining and a traditional barrel of oil," Shackleford said, adding that biofuels are questionable.
Gim said a solution might be found with "the right sizing of FCC units and the production of more green products."
"I think we have a way to extend our relevancy in both the arenas of motor vehicles and petrochemicals," Gim said. "With excess capacities possibly being the new normal, we certainly have the opportunity to very simply change.
"We have an opportunity to do more things that are a softer reset by capitalizing and proving the profitability of our FCC counterpart."
